Nexus between Climate Change, Technological Inputs, Energy Consumption and Cereal Production in India: An ARDL approach

Nur Fakhzan Marwan; Mohd Faizal Azrul Azwan Che Harun; Asmidar Alias; Ratha Krishnan Suppiah

doi:10.21834/e-bpj.v9iSI20.6085

Authors

Nur Fakhzan Marwan Faculty of Business and Management, Universiti Teknologi MARA Cawangan Pahang, Kampus Raub, Malaysia
Mohd Faizal Azrul Azwan Che Harun Faculty of Business and Management, Universiti Teknologi MARA Cawangan Pahang Kampus Jengka, Malaysia
Asmidar Alias School of Civil Engineering Studies, Universiti Teknologi MARA Cawangan Pahang Kampus Jengka, Malaysia
Ratha Krishnan Suppiah Faculty of Business and Management, Universiti Teknologi MARA Cawangan Pahang, Kampus Raub, Malaysia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.21834/e-bpj.v9iSI20.6085

Keywords:

ARDL, Cereal Production, Climate Change, India, Toda-Yamamoto Granger Causality

Abstract

Agriculture is vital to India's economy and food security but is highly vulnerable to climate change. This study examines the impact of rainfall, temperature, arable land, energy consumption, fertilizer, and technology inputs on cereal production in India from 1965 to 2018 using ARDL and Toda-Yamamoto Granger Causality techniques. Results show temperature negatively affects cereal production, while rainfall, arable land, energy, fertilizer, and technology have a positive impact. There is a unidirectional causal relationship between these factors and cereal production. The study suggests adopting modern technology, prioritizing organic farming, educating farmers, investing in agricultural R&D, and developing sustainable irrigation infrastructure.

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