Enhancing Zakat Collection Forecasting using Time Series Analysis
Keywords:
Forecasting, Zakat Collection, ARIMA, Holt-WintersAbstract
Zakat institutions face a major challenge: the lack of a reliable framework to analyze zakat collection trends. To address this, the study employs Holt-Winters and ARIMA models on 72 monthly observations of MAIK collections from January 2017 to December 2022, with a 70:30 train-test split. The data shows a clear upward trend and seasonality, confirmed by ADF tests and correlograms. Evaluation using MSE, RMSE, and MAPE shows that ARIMA(0,0,1)(0,1,1)12 outperforms other models in forecasting zakat collection. In 2024, zakat is projected to reach RM228 million, aiding MAIK’s strategic financial planning.
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